Match your policy, investment, or advocacy question in the left column to the exact TrueNorth workflow and step-by-step clicks:
| Your Real-World Question | Recommended TrueNorth Workflow | Exact Step-by-Step Clicks | Critical Modeling Guardrail |
|---|---|---|---|
| A business is building a new facility, expanding operations, or applying for a public grant in our city. | Tab 1: Impact Simulator — Mode 1 (Annual Steady-State & Two-Phase Simulator) | 1. In the left sidebar, select the Province, City/CMA, Dollar Year, and NAICS Industry Sector (or pick a Flagship Preset). 2. Choose your Input Mode (Annual Revenue, Direct Jobs, Total Payroll, or Headcount x Salary) and enter the project scale. 3. (Optional) Open 'Construction & Capital CapEx' in the sidebar to add one-time buildout spending and a Public Grant amount. 4. Click 'Calculate Economic Impact' to view the 5 Headline KPI Cards, Stage Breakdown Chart, Executive Narrative, and 5 Deep-Dive Satellite Tabs. |
Report Construction impacts as one-time temporary Job-Years and Operations impacts as recurring annual FTEs. Never add one-time construction dollars directly into recurring annual operations without labeling the time horizon. |
| Our project takes multiple years to build (Years 1–3) and ramps up operations gradually over 5 to 15 years. | Tab 1: Impact Simulator — Mode 2 (Multi-Year Phased Capital Buildout & Operations Schedule) | 1. In Tab 1, select 'Mode 2: Multi-Year Phased Capital Buildout & Operations Schedule'. 2. Set the Evaluation Horizon (e.g., 10 Years), Construction Duration (e.g., 2–3 Years), and Public Incentive Grant. 3. Review or edit the year-by-year CapEx allocation (%) and Operations Ramp-Up schedule (% of steady-state capacity). 4. Inspect the cumulative GDP, Job-Years, and exact Piecewise-Linear Treasury Breakeven Year. |
Multi-year employment is measured in cumulative 'Job-Years' (1 full-time job lasting 10 years = 10 Job-Years), while steady-state annual employment is reported in 'Peak Annual FTEs'. |
| We are modeling a complex development or event that spans multiple industries at the same time (e.g., R&D + Manufacturing + Logistics). | Tab 1: Impact Simulator — Mode 3 (Multi-Industry Portfolio & Bill-of-Goods Simulator) | 1. In Tab 1, select 'Mode 3: Multi-Industry Portfolio & Custom Event Simulator'. 2. Add 2 to 10 industry line items with their respective revenue, job, or payroll shocks. 3. Enable the Block-Matrix Intra-Portfolio Buyback Purge (L_SS^-1) if the member firms buy inputs from one another. 4. Export the consolidated portfolio workbook or boardroom dossier. |
When two industries in the same portfolio supply each other, enable the Block-Matrix L_SS^-1 toggle so intermediate sales between portfolio members are not double-counted. |
| We need to compare 2 or 3 competing project proposals or incentive packages side-by-side (Deal A vs. Deal B vs. Deal C). | Tab 1: Impact Simulator — Mode 4 (Side-by-Side A/B/C Project & Incentive Deal Comparison) | 1. In Tab 1, select 'Mode 4: Side-by-Side A/B/C Project & Incentive Deal Comparison Workspace'. 2. Load one of the curated Canadian Deal Suites or pin your own scenarios from Modes 1, 2, or 3. 3. Review the side-by-side KPI comparison and the Differential (Delta vs. Baseline Deal A) table. 4. Download the A/B/C Deal Comparison Excel Workbook or HTML/PDF Dossier. |
Compare deals using Net Treasury Return (Cumulative Consolidated Tax minus Public Grant) and Consolidated Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR). |
| We are an Industry Association, Chamber of Commerce, or University measuring how much our entire existing sector supports today. | Tab 2: Sector & Cluster Footprint (3-Ring Local, Provincial & National Contribution Study) | 1. Switch to 'Tab 2: Sector & Cluster Footprint'. 2. Choose either 'Single-Industry Sector Footprint' or 'Multi-Industry Cluster Builder'. 3. Review the 3-Ring Geographic Spillover Architecture (Ring 1 Local CMA, Ring 2 Rest of Province, Ring 3 Rest of Canada). 4. Explore the 3-Ring Spatial Map (EPSG:3347), Supply Chain, Workforce, Carbon, and Income Quintile sub-tabs. |
Never use a standard Impact Multiplier to measure an entire existing industry, or you will overstate the sector by counting firms buying from themselves. Tab 2 automatically applies the Miller & Blair (2009) Net Contribution formula (L_SS^-1) to purge all intra-sector buybacks. |
| Which industries have the highest multipliers in our city, and which B2B supplies are local firms forced to import from outside? | Tab 3: Industry & Supply-Chain Screener | 1. Switch to 'Tab 3: Industry & Supply-Chain Screener'. 2. Use Mode 1 ('Target Industry Screener') to rank all 220 sectors per $1,000,000 of output by GDP, Jobs, Tax, and Local Retention. 3. Use Mode 2 ('B2B Supply-Chain Gap Finder') to see the exact dollar value of intermediate inputs leaking out of your city. 4. Use Mode 3 ('Forward-Linkage & Key-Sector Matrix') to identify Hirschman-Rasmussen Key Core Sectors. |
High job multipliers alone do not make an industry viable—cross-check against your city's Location Quotient (SLQ) and B2B Leakage Gap to target sectors where local suppliers already have a foothold or where local buyers have proven demand. |
| We are benchmarking 2 to 10 Canadian cities or provinces side-by-side using identical project assumptions. | Tab 4: Jurisdiction Benchmarks | 1. Switch to 'Tab 4: Jurisdiction Benchmarks'. 2. Select Mode A (Project Site-Selection Benchmark) or Mode B (Multi-Chapter Sector/Cluster Footprint Benchmark). 3. Pick 2 to 10 Canadian CMAs or Provinces (or load a Regional Corridor Preset). 4. Compare GDP, Jobs, Local Supply-Chain Retention (FLQ RPC), and Provincial/Municipal Tax yields side-by-side. |
Larger diversified metro areas (e.g., Toronto, Montréal, Vancouver) retain a higher share of upstream B2B supply chains locally than smaller specialized CMAs, which is reflected in their higher Flegg Location Quotient (FLQ) retention rates. |
| We are modeling Retail/Consumer purchases, a custom company line-item budget (ABP), or a Tourism / Sporting / Cultural Event. | Tab 6: Margins, ABP & Tourism | 1. Switch to 'Tab 6: Margins, ABP & Tourism'. 2. Select Milestone 29 for 473-Commodity Purchaser-Price Margin Unbundling (separating producer price, wholesale, retail, transport, and product taxes). 3. Select Milestone 28 for 3-Stage Analysis-by-Parts (custom wages, surplus, and B2B recipe) or 172-Column GFCF Capital Investment shocks. 4. Select Milestone 30 for the Tourism & Major Event Satellite Account (PTTSA) with automatic local resident crowding-out filtering. |
Never enter gross retail store sales directly as a manufacturing shock. Milestone 29 automatically splits the shelf price across the producer, wholesaler, retailer, freight carrier, and sales taxes before applying regional supply retention. |
Every TrueNorth impact study reports five core macroeconomic indicators broken down across three ripple stages:
| Headline KPI Card | What It Measures | Everyday Plain-English Analogy | How to Report It |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Total Economic Output Gross Business Volume / Total Sales Revenue |
The total dollar value of all production and sales revenue generated across the project, its local B2B suppliers, and local consumer-facing businesses. | Think of Output as the sum of every cash-register receipt at every business touched by the project. If a bakery sells a $5 loaf of bread using $2 of flour bought from a local mill, total Output is $7 ($5 + $2). | Use when describing total gross business volume or supply-chain transaction activity. Never add Output and GDP together, because Output already includes the cost of intermediate inputs. |
| 2. Total GDP (Value Added at Basic Prices) Net New Economic Wealth Created (The Gold-Standard Metric) |
Total Economic Output MINUS the cost of raw materials, energy, and intermediate B2B inputs. GDP comprises Employee Wages & Benefits, Business Operating Surplus (Profits), and Net Taxes on Production. | In the bakery example ($5 bread made from $2 flour), the mill adds $2 of value and the bakery adds $3 of value. Total GDP is $5—the true net wealth created without double-counting the flour. | ALWAYS lead with Total GDP when presenting to Government Ministries, Treasury Boards, City Councils, and Chief Economists. It is directly comparable to official Provincial and National GDP statistics. |
| 3. Total Labour Income Total Paychecks, Salaries & Employer-Paid Benefits |
The total pre-tax compensation (wages, salaries, and employer social contributions such as CPP/QPP, EI, and pensions) paid to workers across Direct, Indirect, and Induced jobs. | This is the portion of GDP that goes directly into workers' household bank accounts to support local families. | Lead with Labour Income (and average wage per FTE) when demonstrating job quality, community purchasing power, and household income growth. Remember: Labour Income is a component OF GDP, not in addition to GDP. |
| 4. Total Employment (FTEs / Job-Years) Full-Time Equivalent Annual Jobs Supported |
The total number of full-time-equivalent jobs supported across the facility (Direct), its B2B vendors (Indirect), and local Main Street businesses (Induced). | One FTE equals 1 full-time job lasting 12 months (or two half-time jobs lasting 12 months). During a temporary construction phase, jobs are measured in 'Job-Years' (1 job for 1 year). | Always separate recurring annual Operational FTEs from one-time temporary Construction Job-Years. |
| 5. Consolidated Tax Revenue Federal, Provincial & Municipal Public Treasury Return |
Total public tax revenues generated across 10 empirical tax instruments: Federal (Personal Income Tax, GST, Corporate Income Tax, Import Duties), Provincial (Personal Income Tax, PST/HST/QST, Corporate Tax, Natural Resource/Production Taxes), and Municipal (Commercial & Industrial Property Tax and local fees). | This is the public sector's direct financial dividend from the project, used to calculate whether a government incentive grant pays for itself over time (Benefit-Cost Ratio and Payback Horizon). | Essential for government grant applications, TIF/property-tax abatement analyses, and municipal council briefings. |
| Economic Ripple Stage | Plain-Language Definition | Real-World Canadian Example |
|---|---|---|
| Stage 1: Direct Impact ('Inside the Fence') | The immediate jobs, payroll, GDP, and output occurring directly on-site at the facility, project, or sector being analyzed. | An EV battery plant in Windsor hires 800 workers on-site and produces $250M in battery packs. |
| Stage 2: Indirect Impact ('The B2B Supply Chain') | The upstream business-to-business ripple effect when the facility purchases raw materials, components, utilities, freight, engineering, legal, and accounting services from other businesses located inside the region. | Local Windsor tool-and-die shops, trucking companies, and electrical contractors hire additional staff to supply the battery plant. |
| Stage 3: Induced Impact ('Main Street Household Spending') | The consumer spending ripple effect when Direct employees (at the plant) and Indirect employees (at local suppliers) spend their take-home paychecks on groceries, restaurants, housing, retail, and healthcare in the community. | Local grocery stores, restaurants, pharmacies, and retail shops in Windsor expand hours and staff to serve those workers' families. |
| What Is an Economic Multiplier? (Total ÷ Direct) | A multiplier measures the total regional ripple per unit of Direct activity (Total Impact divided by Direct Impact). A GDP Multiplier of 1.65x means every $1.00 of Direct GDP generates an additional $0.65 in Indirect B2B and Induced Household GDP. | If Direct Jobs = 100 FTEs and Total Jobs = 185 FTEs, the Employment Multiplier is 1.85x (every 10 direct jobs support 8.5 additional community jobs). |
Configuration: Province: Ontario | City: Windsor | Sector: Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (BS336110) | Annual Revenue: $250M | One-Time Construction CapEx: $150M | Public Incentive Grant: $25M over 10 Years.
How to Interpret & Present: Look at Section 1 (Recurring Annual Operations) separately from Section 2 (One-Time Construction CapEx) and Section 3 (Combined Year-1 Footprint). Then scroll to the Public Grant & Incentive ROI Card to verify the Consolidated Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) and exact payback year.
Configuration: Province: Ontario | City: Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo | Sector: Computer Systems Design & AI Services (BS541500) | Annual Revenue: $50M | Construction CapEx: $15M | Public Grant: $5M.
How to Interpret & Present: Open the 'Workforce & NOC 2021' sub-tab at the bottom of Tab 1 to see why high-tech projects punch above their weight: over 80% of jobs require University Degrees or College Diplomas (TEER 0–3), over 30% are Core STEM roles, and high median wages drive strong Induced Main Street spending and Income Tax recovery.
Configuration: Evaluates the entire baseline size of your selected industry (or a Multi-Industry Cluster such as Tech, Finance, Auto, or Clean Energy) across Ring 1 (Local City/CMA), Ring 2 (Rest of Province), and Ring 3 (Rest of Canada).
How to Interpret & Present: Tab 2 automatically purges intra-sector buybacks (L_SS^-1) so your association study is 100% immune to double-counting criticism. Use the 3-Ring Spatial Map sub-tab to show Federal and Provincial policymakers how your local industry supports jobs in every other Canadian province.
Configuration: Lets you override standard industry averages with your company's exact Direct Wages (PRM500000), Employer Benefits (PRM600000), Operating Profit (PRM800000), Direct Headcount, and custom B2B vendor procurement recipe—or run an industry-specific capital equipment shock across Statistics Canada's 172 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (COB*/MEB*/IPB*) investment columns.
How to Interpret & Present: Compare your custom project's GDP and Tax return against the benchmark industry recipe shown in the top reference banner, and verify that INV-28A/INV-28B mathematical reconciliation errors remain below 1e-12.
Configuration: Takes any final retail/purchaser-price expenditure across Statistics Canada's 473 Detail IOCC commodities and unbundles the shelf price into: (1) Producer Basic Price, (2) 8 Wholesale Margins, (3) 11 Retail Margins, (4) 13 Freight Transport Margins, and (5) Direct Product Taxes.
How to Interpret & Present: Look at the 5 Unbundling Cards at the top of Milestone 29 to see exactly how much of the consumer dollar is retained locally by retail/wholesale/transport services versus leaked out via imported manufactured goods.
Configuration: Models visitor counts and daily spending across 4 Visitor Origin Tiers (Local Residents, Intraprovincial Out-of-Town, Other Canadian Provinces, International) and 6 Event Archetypes, mapping expenditures across the 15 official PTTSA tourism bundles.
How to Interpret & Present: TrueNorth automatically applies Additionality Filtering (discounting local resident reallocation unless import-substitution is proven) so you report credible 'Net New-Money Spending' alongside Gross Visitor Spending.
| Satellite Account Module | Plain-Language Purpose | Key Metrics & How to Use Them in Reports |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Supply Chain (220 Sectors & FLQ Local Retention) | Identifies the exact upstream B2B industries that supply your project and measures how much stays local versus leaks out. | - Direct + Indirect B2B Demand ($): Total upstream purchases from each of the 220 Statistics Canada industries. - FLQ Supply Chain RPC (%): Percentage of that input purchased from local city vendors (Flegg Location Quotient). - Leakage (%): Percentage imported from outside the city—your #1 target list for local supplier recruitment. |
| 2. Workforce & NOC 2021 Occupational Skills (TEER 0–5 & Wage Percentiles) | Translates aggregate FTE jobs into 43 specific occupations, educational requirements, STEM intensity, and wage distributions. | - TEER 0 (Management) & TEER 1 (University Degree): Executive, engineering, scientific, and financial roles. - TEER 2 & TEER 3 (College Diploma / Red Seal Apprenticeship): Technologists, skilled trades, millwrights, and electricians. - TEER 4 & TEER 5 (High School / On-the-Job Training): Operators, assemblers, transport, and hospitality staff. - Wage Percentiles (P10, P50 Median, P90): Official Job Bank / LFS hourly wage distribution scaled to SNA compensation. |
| 3. Carbon & Energy Satellite (Physical Flow Accounts & Social Cost of Carbon) | Quantifies greenhouse gas emissions (tCO2e) and energy consumption (Terajoules) across 4 scopes for ESG and climate audits. | - Scope 1 (Direct Facility): On-site fuel combustion and process emissions. - Scope 2 (Purchased Utilities): Emissions from grid electricity, steam, and district energy. - Scope 3 (Upstream Canadian B2B Supply Chain): Embodied emissions across domestic intermediate suppliers. - Scope 4 (Induced Household Consumption): Emissions from worker household spending. - ECCC Social Cost of Carbon ($ CAD): Monetized climate valuation using Environment and Climate Change Canada's official schedule. |
| 4. Income Quintiles & Social Equity (DHEA Q1–Q5 & GBA+ Compliance) | Demonstrates how wages, disposable income, consumption, and taxes are distributed across low-, middle-, and high-income households. | - Household Quintiles (Q1 Lowest 20% to Q5 Highest 20%): Shows exact income and consumption gains for each income bracket. - LMI Share (Q1 + Q2 Share %): Share of project wage gains captured by Low-to-Moderate Income households. - Q1–Q3 Net Household Savings / De-leveraging ($): Net disposable income retained after consumption by bottom-60% households. - Palma Ratio & Suits Progressivity Index: Standard equity metrics required for Federal GBA+ (Gender-Based Analysis Plus) and inclusive-growth grant applications. |
Why It Matters: Output is gross sales revenue (including the cost of raw materials bought from suppliers), whereas GDP is net value added. Because GDP is already contained inside Output, adding them together double-counts every dollar. Always lead with GDP in policy memos.
Verbatim Boardroom Q&A Defense: Q: 'Why is Total Output ($420M) almost double Total GDP ($215M)?' -> A: 'Total Output measures gross business sales across every tier of the supply chain, while Total GDP ($215M) strips out intermediate raw materials to measure pure net value added. We headline GDP because it contains zero double-counting.'
Why It Matters: Construction jobs are temporary 'Job-Years' during the build phase, whereas Operational jobs are permanent recurring FTEs supported every year. TrueNorth automatically separates Construction (Section 2) from Recurring Operations (Section 1).
Verbatim Boardroom Q&A Defense: Q: 'Are these 1,500 jobs permanent?' -> A: 'Our report explicitly separates the two phases: the project supports X one-time Job-Years during construction buildout, followed by Y recurring annual FTE jobs every year once operations begin.'
Why It Matters: When evaluating a brand-new plant or expansion, intra-industry supply purchases are valid new demand (Tab 1). When measuring the total size of an already-existing industry, you must purge intra-sector buybacks (Tab 2's L_SS^-1 formula) so you never count the industry buying from itself.
Verbatim Boardroom Q&A Defense: Q: 'Did your association study inflate its footprint by counting member companies selling to each other?' -> A: 'No. We used TrueNorth's Miller & Blair (2009) Block-Matrix Net Contribution engine (L_SS^-1), which mathematically purges 100% of intra-sector buybacks.'
Why It Matters: A single municipality or CMA imports more specialized inputs from neighboring cities than an entire province imports from outside the province. Therefore, Local CMA Multiplier < Provincial Multiplier < National Multiplier.
Verbatim Boardroom Q&A Defense: Q: 'Why is our city's multiplier 1.48x when the provincial multiplier is 1.72x?' -> A: 'Because TrueNorth uses empirical Flegg Location Quotients (FLQ) from Statistics Canada Table 33-10-1016-01 to filter out supply-chain leakage outside city boundaries. In Tab 2, we capture those out-of-city spillovers separately in Ring 2 (Rest of Province) and Ring 3 (Rest of Canada).'
Why It Matters: If consumers spend $10M at a retail store, the store does not manufacture the goods locally—only the retail margin (~25%–35%) stays with the store. Use Tab 6 (Milestone 29) to unbundle retail, wholesale, and transport margins automatically.
Verbatim Boardroom Q&A Defense: Q: 'Did you assume 100% of retail spending was manufactured locally?' -> A: 'No. We used TrueNorth's 473-Commodity Purchaser-Price Margin Unbundling engine (Milestone 29), which separates producer value, wholesale/retail/transport margins, and sales taxes before applying local supply retention.'
Why It Matters: Because of inflation, $10M in 2025 dollars buys slightly fewer real physical inputs and worker hours than $10M in 2022 dollars. TrueNorth uses official Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0005-01 All-Items CPI deflators to convert nominal budgets into real base-year employment accurately.
Verbatim Boardroom Q&A Defense: Q: 'How did you account for recent inflation in your job estimates?' -> A: 'TrueNorth automatically deflates nominal project budgets using Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0005-01 provincial CPI before computing real FTE employment, preventing wage inflation from artificially inflating job counts.'
Why It Matters: Every TrueNorth calculation is grounded in official Statistics Canada datasets with zero synthetic heuristics or black-box assumptions.
Verbatim Boardroom Q&A Defense: Q: 'Where do these multipliers and tax rates come from?' -> A: '100% from official Statistics Canada tables: Supply and Use Tables (36-10-0478-01), Provincial/National Multipliers (36-10-0595-01), CBP Business Counts (33-10-1016-01), Macroeconomic Accounts (36-10-0221-01), Census NOC Staffing (98-10-0455-01), Physical Flow Accounts (38-10-0097-01), and DHEA Household Accounts (36-10-0588-01).'